Academy Award Predictions: 2024
#143: Award season is over! Maybe I'll start reading books again!
Happy Oscars!
I did it guys - for the first time ever, I saw every best picture nominee. Sacrifices had to be made since some of them are quite long, but I have no regrets and can’t wait to see what happens tonight.
Below are my Best Picture rankings which are based on how much I enjoyed the film at the time of seeing it. Many factors weigh into this including the format, who I was with, how lively the audience was, etc. Think of it as an overall experience ranking.
Then I’ll go through most categories and list who/what I want to win and who/what I think will win.
What are your Academy Award hopes and predictions?
Best Picture
What I Want to Win: Anatomy of a Fall. I saw this in the theater and loved it. I can’t wait to watch it again and discuss it. A bit of a whodunnit with family drama and questions around creativity and failure. I love how it was edited and I loved the performance by Sandra Huller.
What I Think Will Win: Oppenheimer. Like the momentum of the Manhattan Project itself, this is inevitable and can’t be stopped. It is well deserving of the honor and will become the highest grossing Best Picture winner since Return of the King.
Adapted Screenplay
Who I Want to Win and Who Will Win: Oppenheimer. Nolan took a dense, chronological 700-page book, de-constructed it, then completely rebuilt it in his signature non-linear narrative structure. He wrote so much of the editing into the writing (something I’ll talk more about in my Oppenheimer Part 2 post) and gave it two points of view, the subjective point of view of Oppenheimer in color and the objective point of view of Strauss in black and white. The more I learn about it, the more impressed I am.
There’s a small part of me that thinks Poor Things has a chance since the writing was exceptional, especially the way Bella’s speech pattern evolved.
Original Screenplay
Who I Want to Win: Anatomy of a Fall. So freakin’ original and smart.
Who I Think Will Win: Past Lives. There is not a wasted word in this film. Every line had me thinking “that’s a great line.” It is grounded and real and reflects how real people talk. I love movies like that.
Supporting Actress
Who I Want to Win and Who Will Win: Da’vine Joy Randolph. She’s a huge part of The Holdovers and her role feels like a lead rather than supporting. The only other actress I can say that about is Jodie Foster in Nyad (who was seriously fantastic but I don’t think it’s her year).
As great as Emily Blunt and America Ferrara were in their roles, I think their performances get lost in their respective films, whereas Da’vine Joy Randolph is a standout.
Supporting Actor
Who I Want to Win: Sterling K Brown. I loved every moment he was onscreen in American Fiction and I wished that movie had been longer so there could be more of him.
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. He is sweeping all the awards and I won’t be surprised when he wins this. I’m looking forward to the speech he’ll cook up, they’ve all been entertaining.
Wouldn’t it Be Crazy If: Ryan Gosling won? I would lose my mind.
Lead Actor
Who I Want to Win and Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy. He was just too dang good and carried the movie.
Lead Actress
Who I Want to Win: I had picked Lily Gladstone until I saw what Carey Mulligan did in Maestro, which was astounding. But then I saw what Emma Stone did in Poor Things and I think she has my vote. She’s doing a lot in that movie and there were moments I wasn’t sure I was watching acting. It felt more like being.
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone. And I will be happy.
Best Director
Who I Want to Win and Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan. He better clean off his shelves for all the trophies he’ll be getting.
Visual Effects
What I Want to Win: Godzilla Minus One. If there is justice in this world, this will win. All the nominees were fantastic to look at but Godzilla Minus One did the most with the least. Unlike the big-budget Hollywood Godzilla movies, you could feel the weight of this monster.
Sound
What I Want to Win and What Will Win: The Zone of Interest. They essentially made two movies: The one you see and the one you hear. It is a huge achievement that makes the movie harrowing and memorable.
Production Design
What I Want to Win and What Will Win: Poor Things. Each nominee is incredible and gorgeous to look at, but then I saw Poor Things and knew I was watching an Oscar winner in production design.
Costume Design
What I Want to Win: Poor Things. It’s impossible to see the clothes in that movie and not think about the work and creativity that went in to making them. In my opinion, they were the best costumes.
What I Think Will Win: Barbie. Call it a hunch but the clothes were a big part of the movie and character so this would make sense to me.
Original Song
What I Want to Win: I’m Just Ken because it’s just the best.
What I Think Will Win: What Was I Made For? Either way, Barbie gets the trophy.
Original Score
Who I Want to Win and Who Will Win: Ludwig Goransson for Oppenheimer. I listen to this music all the time and it’s just as good outside the context of thefilm. I wouldn’t have a problem with any other score winning except for Poor Things, which had music I couldn’t stand and had to plug my ears.
Film Editing
What I Want to Win and What Will Win: Oppenheimer. Nobody else comes close.
Finally, here’s Ehrlich’s best of 2023 video. I don’t know how he does it.Enjoy!
Have a great Sunday, movie lovers.
Kyle