Academy Award Predictions: 2025 edition

I still love movies.

Mar 02, 2025

Happy Academy Awards weekend, one and all,

The ceremony is tonight and I’m hoping Conan O’Brien crushes it. The Dune popcorn bucket better make a cameo appearance.

I still haven’t watched everything I wanted to watch, but I managed to see many of the nominated films. I’m admittedly not as excited about this year’s nominees as I was last year or the year before, but if Dune Part 2, Nosferatu, and Anora go home with some trophies, then it won’t be a bad night.

Below are my picks (who I’d like to win) and my predictions (who I think will win).

Best Picture

I haven’t seen *A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist,* or *I’m Still Here*

My pick: I’m gunning for Anora even though I don’t think it has a chance. I loved how natural it felt, like the camera happened to be there capturing the chaos. My second choice would be Dune Part 2.
My prediction: I was sure the Academy was going to pick Emilia Perez but after all the controversy I see them going with Conclave. It touches on social issues that voters find relevant and controversy free. And it’s a damn good movie that I hope to discuss in a future Bite Size Review.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I have not seen *A Complete Unknown* or *Sing Sing*

My pick: Nickel Boys is a masterpiece and I’d love to see it win.
My prediction: Sing Sing takes home the hardware.

Best Original Screenplay

I have not seen *The Brutalist* or *September 5*

My pick: Anora is a phenomenal piece of writing with overlapping dialogue, comedy, chaos, and quiet.
My prediction: The Substance. I’m beginning to think The Substance is going to win a ton of awards and I’m not sure how I feel about that. It is unlike anything I’ve ever seen and it’s so stylish and bold. If it weren’t for the last 10 minutes I’d be all about it.

Supporting Actress

My pick: Without seeing The Brutalist or A Complete Unknown, I can only judge the performances of Zoe Saldana, Isabella Rossellini, and Ariana Grande. As fun as Grande’s performance was, I see Zoe Saldana as highly deserving and the best part of a film that I didn’t really enjoy. Grande winning would be insanely fun though. Rossellini delivered a powerful and understated performance that would have won 20 years ago.
My prediction: After taking home trophies from Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, Zoe Saldana is a lock for the Oscar.

Supporting Actor

My pick: I’ve only seen Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Yura Borisov (Anora) and based on those two performances I would pick Borisov. His performance is in his body language, his facial expressions, everything he doesn’t say. I loved it.
My prediction: Kieran Culkin seems like a lock for this category and I’m looking forward to hearing his acceptance speech. Kinda crazy to think that Fuller is about to win an Oscar.

Lead Actress

My pick: Mikey Madison! For this shot and this scene alone:
My goodness, that was cinema. I loved the energy she brought to the character of Ani in Anora. She is so naive and careening toward disaster and yet I found myself hoping for her happy ending.
My prediction: This might be controversial, but I didn’t love what Demi Moore was doing in The Substance. Whether it worked for me or not doesn’t really matter, I believe she’s going to be this year’s best actress.

Lead Actor

My pick: I’ve only seen Ralph Fiennes’ performance in Conclave and thought it was great, but not exactly Oscar level. I hope that Timothee Chalamet wins. Impersonating Bob Dylan couldn’t have been easy. And he was so good in Dune Part 2.
My prediction: Adrien Brody. Yawn.

Best Director

My pick: This category kills me with conflict, with Sean Baker and Coralie Fargeat nominated but no Denis Villeneuve. I will be happy with either of them and will rage if anyone else wins (although I’m sure they are deserving, the director job is a hard one, blah blah blah).
My prediction: I see Brady Corbet taking it.

Visual Effects

My pick: Dune Part 2 needs to sweep every technical category where it’s nominated so I’m picking it for visual effects.
My prediction: Better Man. What I’ve heard about the CG monkey (sorry, ape) in Better Man is that it’s the best of all the CG apes nominated this year. I have a feeling the Academy will give it love.

Cinematography

I have not seen *The Brutalist* or *Maria*

My pick: Dune Part 2
My prediction: Nosferatu. This movie was on another level technically. I wish there was a lighting category because the way this film was lit took my breath away. The scene in the smoky inn lit by candles and a fireplace was stunning.

Sound

My pick: Dune Part 2
My prediction: A Complete Unknown

Production Design

Not seeing *The Brutalist* was a big mistake, I know

My pick: Dune Part 2
My prediction: Nosferatu. As much as I want Dune to win, the sets of Nosferatu were the best I saw all year. They felt old and lived in and grimy. They had so much texture. It was a completely immersive experience.